
Definitely believe we are in for continued down trend in the market or at best flat market.
Biggest concern for me is current government policy and the unknown over tax and health care effects going into future.
Thanks for going over those 10 signals. The marketing going down has been on my mind a lot, it’s kind of scary keeping me in cash and or looking for things to short.
We need to remember we are only 38% of the global GDP now. Past indicators are not as reliable as before. The global market is may turn our market positive before we know it. Corporations are sitting on a mountain of cash. I can not turn on CNBC without hearing the words “double dip recession.” History has shown that after a massive run up in Gov debt the stock market started a major bull market. Investors are still putting large amount in bonds. Fear always takes your eye off good investments.
Yes, don’t understand why it hasn’t come crashing down already. Read that the Fed is propping it up buying stock? Maybe some people think that equities are a store of value, but we are deflating now. Many companies flush with cash but also have record levels of debt too? Just watching every day and keep rolling puts to the next few months out, and spread trading the swing opportunities I guess. Scary times for us all.
Always, the great motivator.
Enjoyed Tony’s commentary.
New to the site, thanks so much!!!!!!!!!!!!
To Jeff and crew: HAVE A GREAT DAY
Hi Jeff,
I’m counting on this downside move starting now! Thanks for your insight and information. Very much appreciated.
How have we stayed up this long it just makes me wonder everyday. There is nothing that is being done politacally taht is going to help us but take us down more in my opinion. Who wants to hire people not knowing what healthcare is going to do. Pretty concerning what could happen here but if you keep your powder dry(having cash) there may be some buying opportunities galore out there. Now the problem will be what will the new low be and when do you get back in? I don’t have any idea how the Fed can come back in and reinflate this again so what can be done. We are going to have to find a new way to fund growth.
Went to cash back in April & have been trading SDS and FAZ since (buying calls and selling puts)with great success. Also trading bear call spreads in the SPY and bull puts in FAZ, again with great success. Plan on continuing with this stragedy until the trend changes.
I’m buying SPY puts.
Sounds like it’s time to remove one of the wings of the iron condors for awhile and just play the bear call spread. We’ll see how it plays out….
At the risk of upsetting the time/space continuum by being able to change the present based on the future, I would indeed behave differently. That is really no different from those of us today who “think” we can see the future (of the market) and make trades accordingly, today. Also not too different from people who always check their horoscope reading before making a move on their day. So I would think that if we are honest with ourselves you should overwhelmingly hear that “yes, I would act differently.”
Now, do we in fact act differently when we “find out” that the market will do x or y? That depends on what we ourselves “think” the market is going to do, or more importantly, “want” the market to do. We are all very good at finding commentary and agreement to support our own belief, even at the risk of minimizing or ignoring sometimes irrefutable evidence to the contrary.
Of course, how do we validate the claim of the future event? Based on the above phenomenon, we tend to first look for evidence or commentary to support OUR own view if it is counter to the future claim. Or, we blindly accept the future claim as accurate – again because it coincides with our own, and/or because we don’t know HOW to validate the claim.
In either scenario, we are then left with the question of what action “should” we take? Regardless of whether you believe the claim or not, the ultimate decision comes down to this last question. In the end we either act as if we believe the claim, as if we don’t believe the claim, or we do nothing (which is really saying that we don’t believe).
Me? I still check the horoscope!
Your message (blog) appears to tie in with the spx100 deathcross…soon to be the spx deathcross? Just a little glance at the future!
Great video. Exactly how I’ve felt for months but could’ve not come up with the right words…..Of course Tony Robbins “nails it”. Thank You Jeff!!!
George, You’re welcome. Glad it was helpful. He articulates very well what not just you, but MANY people have felt.
Have a great day!
Jeff
Makes more sense than the money pundits on TV.
Stan – indeed!
Hey Jeff, This was a great reality check for me, thanks for posting. I hope you’ll follow up on your membership site with a refresher on protective strategies.
Hi Tami,
Glad it was helpful. The message is so important, I think you and I… and every other person reading this… should share this short video with everyone we know (there is a little button called “Share This” and you can send it to others).
You’re welcome
As far as protective strategies go… after watching this video from Tony, I’ve decided I’m going to make a video showing exactly how someone could protect themselves from a sudden catastrophe. Then everyone who watches it can share it on Facebook and email to every friend they have so that no one is in the dark. I made a killing in the first collapse, and I plan on repeat performance if it happens again. Stay tuned…
Have a great day!
Jeff
When you have a wealth of knowledge scattered in your brian sometimes seeing a clear path means using your time given to give. Thanks for sharing your knowledge!
Tobe, no problem…
Thanks for the valuable things you bring to us! Are the optimists crying out that there will be no double dip wrong? It sure looks that way. I believe credit spread trading, done the right way, can be one of those valuable tools Tony was talking about! Maybe one of only a few available to the masses.
Jeff,
Thanks for the video – it certainly does sum up what we’ve been looking at in the membership site.
It’s a great feeling to be able to look ahead with confidence instead of fear, knowing that I’m positioned to do just fine if and when this downturn comes.
Thanks so much for all you do!
Best Regards,
Bill
Jeff,
In case you didn’t see this piece with Kyle Bass, it’s a must see (the second video is outstanding). He saves the best line for last: Q: “are you as negative now as you were in 2008?” A: “I’ll answer that with a question: how many problems have you solved by kicking them down the road?”
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/kyle-bass-investment-market-ideas/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29
Rebecca, sure thing! Credit spreads, *traded correctly* indeed is a tool thats not just for protection… but also for profit… in these times.
Have a great day!
Bill, thanks for the comment. Its an amazing feeling to be able to look at the future with confidence… knowing that you have the necessary tools to consistently pull money from any market…. especially when everyone else is scared. Good job on applying this stuff, Bill!
Jeff